I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists

	I'm not convinced the AI bubble exists(matteoraso.github.io)
	545 points by matteoraso 3 days ago \| 942 comments
	tl;dr: The author argues the AI bubble narrative is overblown: massive AI spending is mostly one-time infrastructure investment, Anthropic's S-1 shows $2.08 revenue per $1 of compute, and public AI giants like Alphabet and Meta have modest P/E ratios in the 20s with real revenue growth—unlike dot-com-era bubble companies. While acknowledging real risks (debt complexity, regulatory backlash, potential OpenAI troubles), they suggest "bubble" rhetoric is driven more by wishful thinking that AI will disappear than by financial fundamentals. The post ends with a plug for the author's Canadian Liberal Party nomination campaign.
	HN Discussion: ↓Bubbles are about timing and speculation, not whether the underlying technology has utility ↓Author cherry-picks data, ignoring Q3 losses, slowing growth, and price wars eroding margins ↓Demand-side concerns: limited consumer appetite and open-source models undercutting closed AI labs ↓Infrastructure costs are not one-time; hardware depreciation, maintenance, and obsolescence undermine the thesis ↑Valuations may pop but long-term usability and profits justify optimism about AI's trajectory