tl;dr: A METR investigation into Anthropic found that AI capabilities progress has roughly doubled over the past year, with AI automation (not compute or headcount) responsible for most of the speedup — suggesting Anthropic has crossed its RSP's "dramatically accelerated progress" threshold. The author estimates this implies researchers are getting a ~10x productivity uplift, and if the feedback loop continues without hitting bottlenecks, it could naively lead to superintelligence within a year. Most supporting evidence was redacted, and current industry security (both OpenAI and Anthropic recently suffered breaches) falls far short of what a responsible intelligence explosion would require.