The contagion of fear(bcantrill.dtrace.org)
230 points by elffjs 14 hours ago | 156 comments
tl;dr: The author recounts a shameful college prank where he falsely told humanities students a computer virus was spreading, causing panic and lost work. He uses this as an analogy to criticize recent claims by Anthropic-affiliated technologists that AI has a >10% chance of causing human extinction within a decade, arguing such fears propagate faster than evidence. As someone who builds computers, he counters that AI still depends on physical systems under human control, and extraordinary extinction claims demand extraordinary evidence that proponents haven't provided.
HN Discussion:
  • ~AI risk is real but human misuse is the more immediate concern than autonomous AI
  • Sensational extinction claims without evidence should not be taken seriously
  • X-risk arguments rely on unfalsifiable religious-style reasoning
  • Anti-doom pieces fail because they ignore compounding exponential trajectories
  • Behavior of AI leaders contradicts their stated doom probabilities, undermining credibility