tl;dr: Anthropic's Economics team built a scenario explorer modeling how AI could reshape the US economy by 2030, based on user inputs about AI capabilities, adoption, and productivity. In modest-to-substantial scenarios, GDP grows 1.6-8.3% with unemployment staying within historical norms, while an "extreme" scenario shows 32% GDP growth but significant knowledge-worker displacement, stagnant or declining wages for those workers, and a shift of economic gains from labor to capital. The model omits factors like robotics, policy responses, and demand shocks, and is presented as a thinking tool rather than a forecast.