Nvidia, CoreWeave, and Nebius: Inside the Circular Financing of the GPU Boom(io-fund.com)
301 points by adletbalzhanov 20 hours ago | 121 comments
tl;dr: Neoclouds CoreWeave and Nebius are riding $120B+ in hyperscaler commitments from Microsoft and Meta, who prefer leasing GPU capacity to shift capex into opex while gaining faster access to Nvidia's latest chips and higher GPU utilization rates. However, both firms are burning cash aggressively—CoreWeave's Q1 capex ($7.7B) dwarfed revenue ($2.08B), with debt hitting $24.86B and interest consuming 26% of revenue. Nvidia's dual role as investor, supplier, and buyer-of-last-resort for unsold CoreWeave capacity creates a circular financing loop that raises questions about how much AI infrastructure demand is genuinely organic versus Nvidia-subsidized.
HN Discussion:
  • Nvidia's investment is too small relative to CoreWeave's capex to be genuinely circular financing
  • Circular financing framing is overplayed; profitability metrics like token ROI matter more
  • Circular financing isn't a problem since Nvidia is just deploying excess cash into interesting companies
  • The setup is a fragile financial house of cards that will eventually collapse
  • Slower datacenter rollout may limit damage when the AI bubble bursts