AI 2040: Plan A(ai-2040.com)
298 points by kschaul 1 day ago | 309 comments
tl;dr: The AI 2027 authors present "Plan A," a proposed positive alternative to their previous predictions of extinction or power concentration from superintelligence. The plan calls for delaying superintelligence development until 2040, making all AI research public, letting dozens of global companies reach the frontier, and establishing "mutually assured compute destruction." The scenario depicts 2027-2029 as a critical window where mass white-collar job disruption, looming recursive self-improvement, and concentration of power in a few US/Chinese CEOs force Congress and voters to confront who ultimately controls AI—culminating in a pivotal 2028 election.
HN Discussion:
  • The article is quasi-religious doomsaying/astrology rather than science
  • The piece reads as speculative creative writing, not serious analysis
  • The scenario ignores economic realities that would halt AI development first
  • LLMs are plateauing, not on an exponential trajectory toward superintelligence
  • Questions whether humanity has ever successfully halted pursuit of knowledge