GPT-5.5 Codex reasoning-token clustering may be leading to degraded performance(github.com)
367 points by maille 48 days ago | 151 comments
tl;dr: Analysis of 390K Codex token_count records shows GPT-5.5 responses disproportionately terminate at exactly 516 reasoning tokens (with echoes at 1034 and 1552), accounting for 82% of such events despite only 19% of overall traffic. This clustering spiked from 0.11% in Feb 2026 to 53% in May, coinciding with a drop in mean reasoning-token usage—suggesting a hidden reasoning-budget cap, truncation, or routing behavior specific to GPT-5.5 that may explain degraded performance on complex tasks.
HN Discussion:
  • Users independently reproduced the 516-token clustering in their own Codex data
  • Reported quality degradation in Codex matches the article's findings and hypothesis
  • Skeptical the clustering reflects a real problem, attributing it to encryption artifacts
  • Speculates this clustering is the result of OpenAI's cost-cutting optimizations
  • Considering switching to competitors or local models due to silent server-side regressions